Monday, April 11, 2016

WHY DOES THE GOP LOVE HILLARY AND FEAR BERNIE?

                       
There's no doubt that Hillary Clinton is a "qualified" Establishment candidate. 

It's painfully obvious that the Establishment; both Republican and Democrat and the Mainstream Media propaganda puppy are all afraid of Bernie Sanders - very afraid.

The "B" word is rarely brought up when the media reports on predictions in the general elections. It's usually (almost always) a Republican vs Hillary.

The Republican candidates themselves won't even touch the "B" word when spinning who they will defeat in November; who else? but Hillary. Bernie Sanders doesn't even exist.

So why all this attention to Hillary from both sides?

Well, first off, she's Establishment 100% through and through. Both her and Bill always have been and they've made millions being good at it. Bernie is a self-professed "outsider" and wears the label, "social democrat" like a badge of honor.

Which brings up the second reason; Hillary is a Multi-Millionaire and a card carrying member of the 1%. Which is why larger corporations and Wall Street love her.

The Clinton's are spokespersons for Wall Street albeit the millions of dollars they have made giving pep talks (speeches) to the "millionaires and billionaires" Bernie refuse to even be in the same room with.

Hillary is absolutely no threat to Wall Street and Republicans know that. Which is why she is the candidate of choice should she by chance beat their de facto candidate; the Donald, another self professed anti Establishment "outsider" in his own right. In fact I'd bet Republicans would secretly go for Hillary; anything other than Trump.

In the event the Republicans are able to front Cruz, who is at least part of the Establishment, they are betting that Hillary, who carries a  huge load of baggage, will be gift that keeps on giving. This will make her Republican proponent a viable choice with Independents and the anyone but Hillary folks.

Republicans and Establishment Democrats know that Bernie is dangerous and, once elected President, their days would be numbered because the wave that brings him into office will inevitably flow over the Mid-Term elections and do some long overdue, sorely needed "House" cleaning in order to bring some functionality and respectability to our political system.

Bernie is the "elephant in the room" and it's not going to be easy to ignore him for much longer as this recent LA Times piece conveys;

Anyone who covers campaigns usually finds the most comfort in hard data — poll numbers, raw voting totals, demographic figures and so on. But there’s also the sense that you get when you get out and talk with people about the election.

Informal polling, visible campaign energy and conversations with people who aren’t as engaged in the day to day but plan to show up on June 7 are practically impossible to quantify.

And, in Los Angeles at least, the data favors Hillary Clinton, while Sen. Bernie Sanders has captured the lion’s share of the energy.


In just one finite example, the crowd at the Los Angeles Times Festival of Books this weekend was decidedly pro-Sanders.

Over the course of the three panels I moderated about presidential politics, I heard from multiple Sanders supporters who are excited about their candidate, and in many cases working for his cause less than two months before California’s primary. Sanders T-shirts dotted the audience. Bumper stickers reading "Bernie" were prominent in the parking lot. When I asked for a show of hands, his backers outnumbered Clinton's. By a lot.

Sanders volunteers spent all day Sunday registering voters in the crowd, with one telling me he had single-handedly signed up dozens and planned to drop the forms in the mail.

I talked with many of them who are frustrated with what they believe is the media’s portrayal of Clinton as the front runner he couldn’t possibly topple. They prodded me as to why I hadn’t mentioned at the panel that Sanders won the caucuses in Wyoming on Saturday. (The answer: It doesn’t shift the race, since he and Clinton yielded 7 delegates each.)

Is this group just especially vocal and prevalent at an event focused on reading? Are the Clinton supporters just more quiet about their devotion? Entirely possible. The latest Field Poll in California found Clinton remains ahead, 47% to 41%.   Read more; 
Essential Politics: Sanders supporters out in full force in Los Angeles

So, who do the Republicans have to worry about most in a General Election? 

With both the Republican and Democratic campaigns coming down to the final states, the primary races are heating up.

Bernie Sanders is slowly closing the gap against Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, but two major states are set to go Clinton’s way

Meanwhile, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz by almost 200 delegates but is a long shot to clinch the nomination without the input of a GOP establishment that’s not too fond of him.

Democratic Delegate Count 2,383 Needed (Includes Superdelegates)
Hillary Clinton 1,756
Bernie Sanders 1,068


Republican Delegate Count 1,237 Needed
Donald Trump 743
Ted Cruz 545
John Kasich 143


With the conventions looming, a lot of minds are turning to the general election.RealClearPolitics polling aggregations show that both Clinton and Sanders beat either Cruz or Trump, though Ohio governor John Kasich, despite being far back in his own party’s polls, beats Clinton head-to-head and keeps it within 3 points against Sanders.

Here’s a look at the state of the race:

Hillary Clinton vs. Republicans

Clinton vs. Trump

In good news for Democrats, Hillary Clinton shows well against both of the GOP frontrunners in matchup polling aggregations.

RealClearPolitics: Clinton vs. Trump                     Clinton                  Trump
McClatchy/Marist                                                       50                          41
Investors Business Daily                                             47                          35
Public Policy Polling                                                   48                          41
Fox News                                                                     49                          38
Average                                                                       49.6                       39


Clinton vs. Cruz
Clinton leads Cruz in the plurality of recent polls, but it’s a much closer race than her matchup with Trump.

RealClearPolitics: Clinton vs. Cruz                            Clinton                    Cruz
McClatchy/Marist                                                           47                          47
Investors Business Daily                                                 44                          39
Public Policy Polling                                                       45                          42
Fox News                                                                         44                          47
Average                                                                           46.4                       43.9


Bernie Sanders vs. Republicans

Sanders vs. Trump

As you might expect from the least liked facing the most liked, Sanders easily beats Trump in head-to-head polling.

RealClearPolitics: Sanders vs. Trump                         Sanders                      Trump
McClatchy/Marist                                                             57                            37
Investors Business Daily                                                  53                             36
Public Policy Polling                                                        48                             40
Fox News                                                                          52                             38
Average                                                                            53.9                          37.4
Sanders vs. Cruz

Sanders leads Cruz by double digits in an average of the most recent polls.

RealClearPolitics: Sanders vs. Cruz                        Sanders            Cruz
McClatchy/Marist                                                        53                  41
Investors Business Daily                                             50                   38
Public Policy Polling                                                  48                    41
Fox News                                                                    47                    43
Average                                                                       50.7                40.6

Cruz has won four of the 18 matchup polls he’s had with Sanders since RealClearPolitics began tracking in October 2015.

Sanders vs. Kasich

While Sanders, unlike Clinton, extends his winning streak over Republicans to Kasich, it’s a significantly closer race than over Kasich’s Republican rivals, with Kasich leading several recent polls.

RealClearPolitics: Sanders vs. Kasich                           Sanders                Kasich
McClatchy/Marist                                                             52                        41
Investors Business Daily                                                   45                        42
Public Policy Polling                                                         41                        44
Fox News                                                                           43                        44
Average                                                                             46                         43.3