Wednesday, April 6, 2016

BERNIE IS ON THE ROAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE

Clinton is still the odds favorite. The reason for this is simple, Clinton has a big lead; however, it’s not so HUUUUGE that Clinton supporters should rest on their laurels just let, the contest is not over and it doesn't matter how many times people claim the ability to see the future with 20/20 clarity. We won't know who has won until one of them concedes.

Here’s why.

Clinton only won Arizona thanks to votes already cast. On election day itself, Sanders won handily suggesting that Clinton’s lead is not holding strong, it’s actually evaporating. Early on in the race there is little question that she was leading, especially among African American voters and those voters who voted early, something that is especially pronounced in Arizona backed Hilary and barely considered Sanders. So she went into the race a winner. Back on February 27th she was beating Sanders among African Americans by 52 points! By March 26th by just nine points. And now in April, according to Public Policy in Wisconsin Clinton’s lead over Sanders with African American voters stands at -11. That’s right. Sanders has overtaken her, a swing of 63 points in just over 30 days. I have never seen anything like it. Seriously.

How far back does the evaporation of this support go? That’s harder to say. Since March 1st though Sanders has won on election day in 12 out of 18 States and in many of them, his wins were big. We cannot know what future contests will look like, don’t let anyone tell you differently but what we can is play with some numbers and see how we do. If and please for the sake of saving me some trolling I say again in block capitals IF this is an actual trend, then Clinton will lose or at the very least, will not win by much.

Let's look at this from the Huffington Post.

Of Clinton’s five post-March 1st Election Day wins, four (Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, and North Carolina) were in the South, and were made possible by a level of support among nonwhite voters that Clinton no longer enjoys. 

Indeed, this coalition was already collapsing when Clinton won in Florida and North Carolina on March 15th. At the polls in North Carolina on Election Day, Clinton won just 52 percent to 48 percent, including the tens of thousands of provisional ballots cast (which, still being counted, have gone, as expected, 57 percent for Senator Sanders). 

In Florida, the 36-point edge Clinton held in the first three weeks of early voting (February 15th to March 7th) dwindled to a 13.4-point edge among those who made their decision regarding who to vote for from March 8th to March 15th.

In short, the Clinton campaign is in the midst of an historic collapse — much of it due to the unraveling of support for Clinton among nonwhite voters — and the national media has yet to take any notice.

Hillary Clinton's Support Among Nonwhite Voters Has Collapsed

OK so things are going worse for her than they did but isn't it too little too late? 

She's ahead and after Wisconsin, she'll still be ahead and again, that's not something anyone can refute. We cannot follow the trend all the way to the convention. Sanders won Wisconsin  and, like the past few contests we're looking at it in terms of a trend.  

By the time we can call a Sanders victory, we'll already know if he's won or not! 

That's because there are only two scenarios left. A blow out, where Clinton sweeps Sanders aside in some key states by unforeseen margins or vice versa. Or a scenario where Sanders gradually narrows the race and then overtakes Clinton at the last hurdle or else never quite gets enough momentum to do so we know;

Big Clinton victories in New York, New Jersey and California would finish Sanders' campaign off.


CLINTON WINS BIG, REAL BIG!

These are the numbers. Note, these fluctuate slightly over time.

Clinton 1243

Sanders 1038

2383 to win

2,042 still available. Clinton has a lead of only 205 delegates or about a 4% edge; so despite what you have heard, her lead is anything but insurmountable. 

Forget the super delegates, they will support whoever wins the ballot race or they will face a GOP style meltdown. Said meltdown would be so mindbogglingly toxic that the Democrats would lose the General, even with the Republicans seemingly hell bent on splitting down the middle with more finality than a post op transsexual's unmentionables.

Clinton is in the lead yes, but she still needs to win another 1,140 delegates which is rather a lot although, Sanders needs to win 1,345 which is even more.

One thing is undeniable and that is that Clinton could blow Sanders out of the water more quickly than you could turn Massachusetts coastal waters brown in 1975 by yelling shark! All she would need to do is clean up in a couple of places like New York and California to end the race once and for all; but we must be cautious since such a scenario is highly unlikely. 

Two things.

1 That’s not enough. She’d still be 402 short although it would leave only 1,304 delegates which for those of you paying attention would make it impossible for Sanders to win the pledged race.

2. There are no winner takes all states in Democratic primaries so it’s basically not possible for her to get all of these delegates unless Sanders dropped out.

So, we know this thing is not going to be over in April. Clinton would have to win by obscene margins in order to end the race that soon. 

Not that something as inconvenient as reality is going to stop the media. Since they are adding super delegate totals into the mix, there is a chance that at some point in April they will declare that Hillary has reached the magic number of 2383 and with great fanfare declare the race over. 

They will then insist that Sanders steps aside for the good of the party, or the country, or his health, or whatever. It will be an act of futility. Sanders has the money to fight on. If he is to win the nomination, he needs to play the long game; premature victory celebrations will not slow him down. At any rate, the fawning victory party will come, if not in April then in May.

A far more likely scenario than a huge blowout is that of a Rugby scrum that takes place all the way to the convention.

There are 22 contests left if you include places like Guam with its 10 delegates and the Virgin Islands with its 11.

In the past six contests Sanders has won by huge margins but such victories are unlikely to last. If they do, then Hilary is doomed, obviously. There are however, encouraging signs. He looks set to cut Clinton’s lead in key states such as New York, where he is now down to just 12 points which, with record numbers of new voters registering across the state might evaporate as it has elsewhere.

Meanwhile in a recent California poll, voters preferred Sanders over Clinton, 44% to 35%.USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll. That's a state with over 500 delegates and with 21% of likely democrats still undecided, either candidate could win big.

Here's a series of charts courtesy of NPR that show a path to a Sanders victory.

Whatever way you look at it, it's not going to be easy for Sanders to win. He does not need the 73% the media keeps talking about, but he does need to do well. 

Also, let's remember that this is only one set of scenarios; there are others. Some tests are important, both in terms of delegates and in terms of psychology.



Update: 06/04/2016 Sanders won 56.5% of the vote which is less than this projection though only by 8.5%. He outperformed the polls by 10% though, which is a huge failure on the pollsters part. If all the polls are out by this much and in Sanders favor then the race is over.

April 9 (14 delegates) — Wyoming:
Another Western caucus state where Sanders is expected to do well. SANDERS NEEDS: 71 percent

April 19 (247 delegates) — New York:


SANDERS NEEDS: 55 percent (136 to 111)

April 26 (384 delegates) — Northeast Tuesday — Connecticut (55), Delaware (21), Maryland (95), Pennsylvania (189), Rhode Island (24):


SANDERS NEEDS: 54 percent (205 to 179)

May 3 (83 delegates) — Indiana:


May 10 (29 delegates) — West Virginia:
The Democratic primary was 96 percent white in 2008. SANDERS NEEDS: 69 percent (20 to 9)

May 17 (116 delegates) — Oregon (61), Kentucky (55):


SANDERS NEEDS: 69 percent (80 to 36)

June 4 (7 delegates) — Virgin Islands:

SANDERS NEEDS: 71 percent (5 to 2)

June 5 (60 delegates) — Puerto Rico:

Clinton is the favorite. SANDERS NEEDS: 42 percent (25 to 35)

June 7 (694 delegates) — California (475), New Jersey (126), New Mexico (34), Montana (21), South Dakota (20), North Dakota (18)


SANDERS NEEDS: 57 percent (399 to 295)

Calif. 58 percent (275 to 200)
N.J. 55 percent (69 to 57)
N.M. 47 percent (16 to 18)
Mont. 67 percent (14 to 7)
S.D. 65 percent (13 to 7)
N.D. 67 percent (12 to 6)

June 14 (20 delegates) – Washington, D.C.:


SANDERS NEEDS: 35 percent (7 to 13)

( This case study is provided by Despite The Math, Bernie Sanders Has Already Won)

Now that's TIGHT!

Of course he might outperform in some areas and under perform in others so there's definitely wiggle room here. What is striking about these numbers is how close the contest really is.  Look at Oregon, where Sanders has to gain 69%.  That sounds impossible. But then, Oregon is an awful lot like Washington and he got 72% there...

Look at California. Can Sanders win 58% of the vote? Or is that fantasy?'

There are clearly some major hurdles along that path, especially New York, California and New Jersey, for Sanders. But he's going to have lots of momentum and lots of wins in that stretch.

So his wins in March meant that he had the momentum to win in April and May and yes, in June.