There's the Media, the Polls, and then the Silent majority; Politico Admits It! Trump Is Right About The Polls Being Wrong

Politico Admits It! Trump Is Right About The Polls Being Wrong

We all remember the 2016 polls claiming that Hillary Clinton was going to beat President Trump and what we discovered is that the polls were dead wrong.

The latest polls have shown President Trump losing to presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. President Trump has been reminding everyone about the 2016 race and says the polls are underestimating the silent majority. It just so happens that the liberal News outlet Politico agrees.

Politico claims that pollsters aren’t “deliberately skewing their surveys against the president and his party,” but says they “are still grappling with the problems that plagued those polls four years ago.”

“In fact, most pollsters believe that, on balance, state polls are overstating the scale of Biden’s advantage. That was precisely the problem in 2016: The national polls were largely accurate, to within the margin of error. But there were too few state polls, and many of those that were conducted failed to collect accurate data, especially from white voters without college degrees in key swing states,” the outlet reported. “And those issues haven’t been fixed.”

In other words, they don’t have a clue how blue-collar, middle class, and upper-middle-class people are going to vote.

Here’s what the Politico said:

Biden’s current lead over Trump is so large — over 8 percentage points in the national RealClearPolitics polling average, and an average advantage of 3 points or greater in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — that a 2016-level polling error wouldn’t matter. A lead that large would probably guarantee Trump would be denied a second term, and even a polling miss on par with 2016 wouldn’t be enough to overcome it.

But that doesn’t mean the president’s standing is quite as dire as it looks on paper — the problem that pollsters identified in 2016 remains. Not enough surveys are being conducted in the battleground states, and those that exist are failing to account for a key political dynamic of modern politics, especially in the Trump era: the rapid movement of lower-income white voters to Republicans and upscale whites to Democrats.

Politico noted one of 2016 biggest failing was not properly understanding the weight of white voters without a college degree and GOP pollster Glen Bolger hit the nail on the head as to why.

“I don’t know how big the effect is. I also don’t know what the ratio is between it being ‘shy Trump’ voters and interviewing too many college graduates and not enough non-college grads,” Bolger told Politico.

Now, picture this, a middle-class man is a roofer, owns a small company of three or four employees, and supports President Trump. His phone rings and it’s Joe Blow from Gallup/NBC News who is conducting a poll. Two things are most likely to happen, first, he may say “how the hell did you get this number” and hang up. Or, he’s not going to participate because he doesn’t trust Joe Blow and he just had to console his toddler who’s upset because their favorite show “Paw Patrol” has been “canceled.” He’s then worried that if a social justice warrior finds out he’s supporting Trump his business will be “canceled” next. So he doesn’t take part in the poll, or maybe doesn’t answer truthfully, thus the poll is skewed.